OPINION: AFLW Season 7 — To tank, or not to tank.
It’s the taboo word in the world of sports, especially in competitions with a draft and no lottery system — “Tanking”.
When sporting teams realise the playing list that they have assembled will not be able to make a deep run in the post-season, their attention turns to what’s the earliest possible draft pick they can get, and they begin the process of putting their best players (multi-million dollar assets in American sports) on the shelf for the remainder of the season.
Now, I should be clear. The players themselves don’t actively tank — except maybe the likes of the NBA’s James Harden, when he wanted out of Houston — but the art of tanking is more a decision of, and manipulation by, the higher (and backroom) levels of a sporting organisation.
Suggesting “Tanking” in a semi-professional competition that’s only six seasons old may seem odd, but we are entering some very unusual times.
Season seven of the Australian Football League Women’s (AFLW) competition will mark the third and final phase of expansion, with now eighteen teams vying for the Premiership, and fourteen of those teams coming in off their shortest ever off-season in the competition’s brief history.
As of writing, the seventh season was due to begin in the last Weekend of August, but there is still no CBA signed-off, no confirmed sign and trade period, no confirmed draft date and no confirmation of signing rules for expansion teams — despite a number of “commitments” being announced.
The anxiety and frustration levels are so high in the women’s footy community, it’s enough to, well, make one want to go commentate swimming!
With the clock ticking down rapidly to what is supposed to be pre-season, and list managers of the fourteen established sides still uncertain of who is exactly on their books for this next season, a reality will ever soon dawn upon them — will they have a squad that can seriously challenge for the flag?
If the answer is no, the “tank” may for the first time be a live option for them.
Due to a state-based draft still being used, I’m going to leave the Western Australia, South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland teams out of the pros and cons of tanking — as unless an Under 18 player is an absolute jet, there’s not much difference between picks one and two in their draft pool.
The only non-Victorian side that could benefit, is the one that finishes low enough, that their pick would be equivalent to pick one in the Victorian pool of the draft — see 2017 when the Western Bulldogs initially lost the Victorian pick one position, when Alicia Eva went to GWS and the Pies got the Giants pick one overall in return. This meant the Bulldogs had to trade Jamie Lambert to the Pies to regain the number one spot in the draft, for which they’d draft Izzy Huntington (who will soon be a Giant - how ironic).
Out of the eight Victorian AFLW teams that played in season six, at least four have a decent argument on why they should consider the “tank”, two could (but it would leave their fans frustrated), while the remaining two (as of writing and excluding poaching from other teams) are in the Premiership window.
We will also leave Essendon and Hawthorn aside, as early “commitments” to the Bombers indicated they are looking to make waves early, while the Hawks have yet to declare their big name “commitments”.
Melbourne — The Demons will enter season seven as Premiership favourites. After falling two goals short in the Grand Final, but with the eventual premiers starting to now lose players to their cross-town rivals, on paper they have the squad and game plan to go one more step. The only question will be the physical and mental fitness of their players, having trained and played an extra month worth of footy. Those in Victoria will remember Melbourne University’s 2017 VFLW campaign, when they didn’t rest their star players off the back of the first AFLW season. They sat top of the table until the final few weeks, when the clearly mentally exhausted players began feeling the pinch. There will be much interest of how much ‘petrol in the tank’ the Demons will have come November and December. Tank? Certainly no talk of tanking here.
North Melbourne — After making three finals series in their first four seasons, the question was if the Kangaroo’s star players will stick around for another tilt at the flag, or believe the side had hit a ceiling and would look for bigger dollars at the expansion clubs. At the time of writing, Ash Riddell, Emma Kearney, Aileen Gilroy, Jasmine Garner and Jenna Bruton had all knocked back offers to jump ship. In fact, only Jess Duffin and Kaitlyn Ashmore have been speculated at possibly leaving Arden Street. With Irish Gaelic players Vikki Wall and Erika O’Shea due to arrive, and the squad slightly fresher than the Demons (having trained and played three weeks less), this may be a no excuses season for North. Tanking? No way!
Collingwood — Now I get controversial. This is candidate number one for the “tank”. At the beginning of this year, I like many others had the Magpies as one of the favourites for the season six Premiership. On paper, they were fit with a super strong squad. Then disaster, after disaster struck. Premium defender Ash Brazill said she’d be sitting out in favour of playing Netball. Then 2021 AFLW co-Best and Fairest Bri Davey went down with a season ending knee injury. Co-captain Steph Chiocci would miss games and spend months in a moon boot. Chloe Molloy would get Covid and then have back issues. Then to cap it all off, late in the season, Brittany Bonnici would also suffer a season ending knee injury. The Magpies will start season seven without Davey and Bonnici due to injury, Brazill due to netball commitments, have lost Sophie Alexander to Essendon (and reports linking Jamie Lambert to Hawthorn), and who knows how many are carrying injury niggles in this rapidly approaching season. This is not a squad anywhere near maximum strength and a genuine shot at the flag, BUT a “tank” might assist them for season eight. Getting Davey, Bonnici and Brazill back in 2023 makes them look a hell of a lot stronger. An early draft pick for the Pies could see them top up with a very good U18 footballer, or the pick could be traded to acquire a seasoned footballer to fix an immediate need. Tank? It makes sense.
Western Bulldogs — One step forward, two steps back. After having the start of season six wrecked for them due to Covid, the Bulldogs got a wriggle on late to finish in a respectable seventh position. In a normal year, there would be no way the Bulldogs would entertain a “tank” from this position. They would have all been about trying to trade for an experienced player or two, and beginning their push into finals football. However, as I mentioned, season seven is a unique season. The Bulldogs have been raided again as if they were an old Forge’s of Footscray sale. The forward line is now virtually non existent, with life-long Bombers fan Bonnie Toogood headed to Essendon, and Izzy Huntington requesting a trade to GWS (due to University studies) — at least with the latter, the Bulldogs will get a pick(s) in return. Combined with the experienced Hannah Scott retiring, the Doggies would need a Steven Bradbury situation to make the finals. Even if they did scrape in, there’s no way this squad could challenge the Demons, Kangaroos or the Lions for the Premiership. Tank? Play the kids, get the early pick and think about 2025.
Carlton — The Blues. Either the nickname of the Carlton Football Club, or the general feeling amongst Carlton’s AFLW supporters. There’s no doubt there’s got to be a culture problem at IKON Park, otherwise, how do you explain them year after year losing good footballers (and captains!) to other other clubs? We know already for season seven that four Carlton players want out. Madison Prespakis to Essendon was no surprise, but also losing Georgia Gee to the red and black felt like a gut punch to the Carlton faithful. Then they must have thought as if it was all one big joke on them, when Grace Egan reportedly requested a trade to the Tigers (the club that initially overlooked her, when on their VFLW list), and prized 2017 post-season recruit Nicola Stevens indicating she’d rather play for the lowly Saints! The only bright light for Carlton was the reports that the Lions’ Orla O’Dwyer might want to wear the Navy Blue. Considering the loss of talent, and the poor start Daniel Harford’s team had to start of season six, it would be more luck than anything for the Blues to make the finals. Tank? They’re experts (on the Men’s side) at IKON Park. Do it.
Richmond — This is where things start to get tricky. Richmond put up a number of good performances at the start of the year, but would have been bitterly disappointed to have finished eleventh and with just three wins. That said, injuries to Harriett Cordner and Hannah Burchell did them no favours. They’ll pick up Grace Egan from the Blues, and who else they pick up in the draft (or the sign and trade period) will decide their fate. In a normal season, a “tank” would be out of the question. Fans wouldn’t be thinking a flag, but would be hungry for and expecting a finals appearance. However, with a few key players injured, the Richmond hierarchy have a gamble ahead of them. Do they think the likes of the Bulldogs, Blues, and possibly Magpies, will slide, allowing them to climb the ladder, or do they feel the Tigers will be too unpredictable, thus may be best to ‘test the squad depth’? Tank? A very tempting proposition.
Geelong — They pushed North Melbourne in the first game of season six and got everyone excited. Then, they faded into twelfth position finish with just two wins to show for all their troubles. After making the finals in their first season, thanks to the unpopular conference system, the Cats have found themselves ever since at the lower end of the ladder. There hasn’t been much movement talk coming out of the Cats, except that 36 year old Phoebe McWilliams is uncontracted and maybe looking for a new home. Their current list and position suggests they are a “tanking” candidate, but are the locals getting restless and demanding it’s time for an upwards swing? The question is, do we see this as a potential six to seven win team? I think many would say no, so if the finals are unreachable, might as stay where you are. Tank? Well, since you’re down there…
St Kilda — The St Kilda Football Club and the bottom end of the ladder. It’s about as well know and reliable as vegemite on toast. Yes, they did lose their best player Georgia Patrikios, due to her ‘doing her own research’ on the Covid vaccine, and Tyanna Smith (ACL) before season six, and were hamstrung straight out of the gate when they appointed a rookie coach in Nick Dal Santo. Although, to be fair, the Saints being a second phase expansion side had struggled to attract elite players from other clubs, especially with phase two expansion coming so quickly after phase one. When you mention names like McCarthy, Exon, Shierlaw — you think good footballers, but you wouldn’t classify them as the very elite, like when the Kangaroos got Kearney or the Tigers got Conti. With only Nicola Stevens linked to the Saints this off-season so far, the Saints aren’t exactly screaming they’re making a finals push. Tank? Is there any other choice?
In closing, I need to repeat an important point; the players themselves do not “tank”. Their competitive spirit and pride will not allow them.
That said, those in the higher positions of responsibility have to look at the reality of the situation in front of them. If anything, season seven actually provides them with a ‘free pass’ in the mindset of their club’s fans.
All women’s footy supporters understand it’s going to be a struggle, both mentally and physically, for the AFLW players to give 100% when playing two seasons in year — especially with the covid chaos of the last two and a half years.
In a strange way, a “tank” (including limited game time for star players), might be the biggest favour a club could do for their semi-professional footballers.
Peter Holden is the founder of Women’s Australian Rules Football Radio, and has broadcast in excess of 300 women’s matches, including VWFL, VFLW, AFLW Exhibition Matches, AFLW Practice Matches, Interstate Representatives Matches, AFL International Cups and USAFL National Tournaments.